The Price Mc Simulation On Gt Values - 1536 Words

0.0037 in field C. Nevertheless, similar with two other larger fields, the mean and median values are still similar with base-case value. There are several things that can be concluded from oil price MC simulation on GT values. First, there is 100% probability that the forecast GT at all fields are above 68%. Second, the CoV level from field A to field C is increasing, in-line with the rising level of GT. As discuss in the previous section, due to the regressive nature of Indonesia’s PSC term, the GT level in field C, which have the lowest profitability, is the highest among other model field. Therefore, the rising CoV is once again has been the evidence of higher risk and uncertainty, which reflects on the higher GT due to the regressive†¦show more content†¦Furthermore, triangular distribution on devex is employed to model the simulation. Figure 4.24 Field A Post-tax NPV - Monte Carlo Simulation on Devex per barrel Based on figure 4.24, there is 48.58% probability that the post-tax NPV forecast values in field A are greater than the mean forecast scenario of 1,118 million. In addition, there is 100% certainties that the forecast values is positive. The values prediction are ranges between $770 million and $1,473 million. Furthermore, the mean and median forecast values, which are $1,118 million and $1,114 million, are significantly higher than the base-case due to the influence of more profitable forecast results. The CoV is at 0.1363, while the level of skewness is at 0.054. Figure 4.25 Field B Post-tax NPV - Monte Carlo Simulation on Devex per barrel Field B has similar mean and median values of around $446 million. Similar with field A, it is significantly higher than the base post-tax NPV level. Moreover, there is 50.41% certainty that the NPV forecast values are greater than the base-case value of $153 million. In addition, it ranges from around $236 million to $650 million. The CoV is at 0.198, slightly higher than the value in field A. Figure 4.26 Field C Post-tax NPV - Monte Carlo Simulation on Devex per barrel Figure 4.26 shows that there is about 51% probability that field C post-tax NPV values are bigger than the forecast mean of $152 million. Then, it ranges